FanGraphs gives fans, front offices a look at the sport's evolution Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Composite Dodgers 2023 team prospect rankings Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Look at Jason Heyward. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. Buy Low on Jason Heyward | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. by Handedness, Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward, Effectively Wild Episode 852: 2016 Season Preview Series: Chicago Cubs, Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals, pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. by Retrosheet. - Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. For a big man, he can run a little Tag: Jason Heyward | Community Blog Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. SUMMARY Jason Heyward - Bleacher Report Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. Jason Heyward as Mike Trout | FanGraphs Baseball Team Offense, New York Yankees | baseballmusings.com As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. He clearly can the man stands 65. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. This production is, quite frankly, incredible. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. Jason Heyward - MLB Trade Rumors With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. One spring of spring-training data. Dodgers vs. Angels game thread - True Blue LA Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. by Retrosheet. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball - playercard - FanGraphs Staff Two - Jason Heyward While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. Given his decent wheels, it seems highly unlikely that Heyward will continue to keep company with players who run like they have grand pianos strapped to their backs. He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Red Sox employ loophole to MLB shift ban against Joey Gallo Exceptional Braves Seasons you probably forgot about Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Their average WAR is below. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. Hows it going to go? by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. ACME Sports | MLB Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. Games. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Gavin Lux's Knee Injury Further Compromises Dodgers' New-Look Infield Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). Jason Heyward posts cryptic Instagram message about Cubs future - MSN 'Weird cat': Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin reveals hilarious opinion of Noah Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. by Retrosheet. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. Ultimate Foul Balls - Jason Heyward - Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Maybe you heard that some guy named Jason Heyward made the Atlanta Braves' Opening Day roster. The team is confident in . There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. Our premise is that their bad (or All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com Higgins over one inning. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. But the power was largely absent. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. Whatever the name, it might become a problem for them. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. I cant wait to see how this turns out. It really had good numbers on the computer. $8? Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Jason Heyward is Coming Around | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball . He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. Just like I wanted to see one in there. Examining The Cubs' Fifth Starter Options from MLBTradeRumors.com at 2/22/2023 4:39:00 AM. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. by Handedness. Heres why. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Juan Soto already benefiting big from new MLB rule With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. But for now, we can revel in the fact that Jason Heyward, yeah he does a pretty good Mike Trout impression. Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward | FanGraphs Baseball Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. Cubs prospect Hayden Wesneski proving he belongs in the big leagues Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. Age is the decisive factor here. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals by Retrosheet. That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. FanGraphs Membership. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. Perhaps rightfully so. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. First, there are questions as to whether Heyward is actually worth as much as the defensive metrics say he is. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. These were the players remaining. What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . . Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Thats been fairly consistent. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . Jason Heyward got more credit for his defense than Mike Trout, by our numbers. If Heyward had one or two games where he hit everything the other way, that would make this look way different, and thats why its too early to say anything. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Mining the News (3/2/23) | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder Cubs, Heyward Agree To $184 Million, Eight-Year Deal Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. But Trejo, who came to Spring Training to try to change some minds, had a change in latitude because Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the previous game. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network.
